Running review

Your half marathon strategy

Where you are on 2 November

On track. Saturday's long run was exactly right: 15.0 km in 1 h 47 at 7:09/km, averaging 136 bpm and only 15 seconds above 152 bpm. Today you swapped the 8 km easy run for 4 km of recovery at 125 bpm, which is fine this close to the race. Last week was 37.7 km, your biggest week since February, and Garmin's load ratio has come back down from 1.5 to 0.9 (optimal), with training status "productive".

Your next run: Wednesday 4 November, threshold. You look recovered for it: last night's HRV was 48 ms and your resting heart rate 46 bpm, both better than normal. Saturday night was short (5.4 h), so keep an eye on sleep this week.

The 16 days before the race

If HRV drops below about 42 ms or your resting heart rate is 3 or more bpm above normal on a hard day, make that day easy instead. Heavy days on the house count too: skip the threshold session after one.

Race day

1. Two nights before matters most. Aim for 7.5 hours or more on Friday night; a restless Saturday night is normal and costs little.
2. Eat well the day before. Add extra carbohydrate (rice, pasta, bread, potatoes) at every meal on Saturday, keep fibre and fat moderate, and nothing new.
3. Breakfast 2.5 to 3 hours before the start. Something you have tested, such as bread with honey and a banana, plus about 500 ml of water. Coffee 45 to 60 minutes before if you normally drink it.
4. Warm up. 10 minutes of very easy jogging and 3 to 4 short strides, finished about 10 minutes before the gun.
5. Fuel during the race. A gel at about 35 to 40 minutes and another at about 75 to 80 minutes, each with water. Take water at every station.

Pacing

• That plan finishes in about 1:53:20. If the legs are heavy after km 16, holding 5:25 still gives about 1:54:30.
• These heart rate limits come from your own races, not the lab. Your lab threshold is 162 bpm, but over a long race heart rate creeps up at the same pace: in Limassol you held an even 5:23/km while it climbed from 158 to 179. On race day pace leads, and heart rate is the safety check.
• Use lap pace on your watch, not instant pace, and press the lap button at the km markers if GPS drifts. For the first 10 km, heart rate is the limit and pace is the guide.
• After the race: 4 to 5 days completely easy, then the marathon build starts.

How much you ran

• Your biggest month was August 2025, with 178 km over 22 runs. September and October 2025 stayed above 140 km.
• From January to March 2026 you ran 93 to 118 km a month, then it dropped to 24 km in April (4 runs) and 60 km in May. In May you started building your house and did much of the work yourselves, so runs had to give.
• October 2026 is your best month since February, at 111 km, with long runs of 16 and 15 km. You are rebuilding. November shows only the first two days so far.
• You ran in 67 of the 72 weeks since you started, about 3 runs a week. Your consistency is good; the runs just got fewer and shorter.

VO2max over time

• Lab test on 29 October 2026: 43.0. Garmin's estimate for the same day was 47.0, so your watch reads about 4 points (9%) high. That is a normal size of error for a wrist estimate. Read the Garmin line for its direction, not its level: if the gap stays about the same, your August peak of 48.4 was roughly 44 in lab terms. The lab rates 43 as normal for your age group and recommends improving it gradually.
• The drop in your first weeks (46.7 to 43.9) is mostly Garmin calibrating to a new runner in July heat. It is not a real loss.
• It climbed to 47.5 by late September 2025, then drifted down through the winter to 44.6 as monthly volume fell.
• It hit its low of 43.7 in early May 2026, right after the April break, which shows how quickly a few quiet weeks cost you.
• June to August 2026 was your best stretch: 48.4 on 9 August. It climbed back every week after the early-October dip and has held at about 47 since (46.9 on 2 November).

Your easy runs

Your easy (Βάση) runs are the cleanest measure of fitness, because you run them at the same effort every time: almost always 149 to 152 bpm. If the pace gets faster at that heart rate, you are getting fitter.

• From July to October 2025 your easy pace improved by more than a minute per km, 7:22 to 6:06, with no change in heart rate. Your cadence went up too, from about 170 to 179 steps a minute by late 2025.
• Since then it has stayed between 6:08 and 6:26. That plateau is the clearest sign that the current load maintains your fitness without pushing it up.
• July to September (6:17 to 6:24) were the slowest months since summer 2025. Some of that is Cyprus heat and humidity, but it matches the lower volume too.
• October looks slower again (6:35), but that is the plan working: the average heart rate on those runs fell to 146 bpm, and Saturday's 15 km at 136 bpm pulled it down the most. From here the chart only means something at the same heart rate, so compare future months against October, not against last winter.

Race results

• Half marathon: 1:58:25 (Larnaka) to 1:55:27 (Nicosia) to 1:53:56 (Limassol). That is 4.5 minutes faster in four months, a real improvement. Garmin's best 21.1 km inside that race was 1:53:27.
• 10K: 51:55 to 51:44 to 51:32 over ten months, only 23 seconds faster. Your average heart rate rose from 170 to 178 over the same races, so you are mostly getting faster by pushing harder, not by being fitter.
• Your lactate threshold is 5:10/km at 173 bpm (measured 6 October). You ran your September 10K at 5:07/km, right on that line.

• Your half marathon pacing has become excellent. In Limassol your first and second halves were both 5:23/km, while your heart rate climbed steadily from 158 to 179. That is exactly how an even effort should look.
• In Larnaka, your first race, you ran the first 10 km at 5:26 and then slowed to 5:47 for the rest. That fade is what an under-trained endurance base looks like.
• The September 10K went out too hard. You were at 174 to 179 bpm by km 2 to 4, above your 173 bpm threshold, and paid for it with 5:14/km in the second half against 5:02 in the first. A more even start would likely have been faster overall.
• For 15 November: copy Limassol, not Larnaka. Hold back to about 5:25 to 5:30 for the first 5 km and keep your heart rate under about 170 until halfway.

Sleep, resting heart rate and HRV

• Your resting heart rate mirrors your fitness almost exactly. It fell from 53 to 47.6 during the big autumn 2025 block, rose to about 51 through the lower-volume winter and spring, and fell again to 47.2 in August 2026, the month your VO2max peaked.
• It was 50.2 in October, which fits the dip in September and early October described below.

• Through the summer your HRV sat steadily between 44 and 48 ms.
• From early September it dropped to 40 to 42 ms and your resting heart rate rose by 3 to 4 bpm. The lowest week (39.9 ms) was the week after your 27 September 10K, a week with no runs at all. September was a light month (75 km), so training load is not the explanation. The hands-on work on the house is a likely part of it: physical labour loads your body much like training does, but Garmin never counts it as training. Heat and shorter sleep add to it.
• It has recovered: 44.7 ms in the last full week and 44 to 45 ms since, back in your normal range, and your VO2max estimate rose in step.

• Your sleep is steady at about 7 hours, with good scores (76 to 83 every month). The weak spot is summer 2026: June to August averaged 6.6 to 6.8 h, and August had 8 nights under 6 hours. That lines up with the house build, which started in May.
• Early runs make this worse: about half of your runs start between 6 and 7 am, and three quarters before 8. On days with a long or hard run, going to bed earlier is the cheapest performance gain you have.

Where your time goes

• By workout name, about 31% of your running time is hard. Measured by heart rate it is much more: since July, 51% of your time was above 152 bpm (see the zones section below). Most endurance plans aim for around 20% hard and 80% easy.
• Last winter your longest runs were the three half marathons plus regular 17 km long runs. From April to September your longest run was about 10 km. That is a big part of why the half marathon fitness faded.

How much running you can absorb

Garmin's running tolerance estimates how much running your legs and body can currently handle per week without a high injury risk. It rises slowly when you train consistently and falls when you stop.

• Last November and December your tolerance was 52 to 57 km a week, when you were running 35 to 48 km weeks. It fell through the spring break to 29 km in May and stayed at about 30 until October. It is climbing again now: 31.2 km on 2 November, after your 37.7 km week.
• A marathon peak of 45 to 55 km a week needs that number to grow again. It will, but only gradually, which is why the plan adds volume at about 10% a week rather than jumping.
• Late October was a warning sign: the 16 km long run on 24 October followed by two threshold runs pushed Garmin's acute-to-chronic load ratio to 1.5, which it rates as high. You eased off as planned and it is back at 0.9 (optimal).
• Garmin rated your training status as "strained" from 12 to 22 September and again from 5 to 11 October, during the HRV dip and the house work, then "unproductive" until 17 October. It has been "productive" again since then.

Your easy runs sit on the edge of the right zone

• Go by heart rate, not by the lab paces. On the road on a cool morning your heart rate runs lower than on the lab treadmill: Saturday's 15 km averaged 136 bpm at 7:09/km, where the lab curve would predict about 146. From your own runs, about 6:30 to 6:45/km keeps you inside zone 2 on a normal day, and slower in summer heat.
• The lab's maximum of 176 bpm is not your true maximum: your watch has recorded 176 to 193 in races, and the test ends at voluntary exhaustion. Use the lab zones as they are, not as percentages of 176.
• Your watch has no running heart rate zones set, so it uses Garmin's defaults. Enter the six lab zones in Garmin Connect (heart rate zones, running) so zone alerts and time in zone match the lab.

Where your heart rate actually was

Time in each of Garmin's heart rate zones for all 44 runs since 1 July 2026 (37 hours). These are Garmin's default bands, but the 152 boundary happens to match the top of your lab zone 2, so everything in the two darker bands is above your aerobic base zone.

• Only 6% of your running time was below 133 bpm, and 51% was above 152. A well-balanced week has most of its time in the lowest bands.
• Your easy runs spent 41% of their time above 152, and your summer long runs 64%. That is the lab's higher aerobic zone or above, not base training.
• It is already improving: the share of easy-run time above 152 fell from 62% in July to 55% in August, 50% in September and 23% in October. Cooler mornings help, and your October easy runs were noticeably calmer.
• Your 16 km on 24 October shows the next step: the pace stayed at about 6:30/km, but your heart rate drifted from 138 in the first km to 155 at the end. Kept to 151 bpm or less, that run would have been a little slower in the second half, and a better base run.
• A week later you did exactly that. The 15 km on 31 October averaged 136 bpm at 7:09/km, with half the time below 134 and only 15 seconds above 152. That was even a little easier than needed: 136 bpm is in your lab's recovery zone, so long runs can be up to 151 bpm.

Getting back to improving

1. Build back to 30 to 35 km a week. That is roughly where you were when you improved fastest. Add about 10% a week, all of it as easy kilometres. Running slower makes the extra volume much easier to recover from.
2. Make the long run weekly again and grow it. The 16 km on 24 October and 15 km on 31 October are the right direction. Aim for 18 to 21 km regularly if a spring half marathon is the goal.
3. Keep easy and long runs in lab zone 2, 143 to 151 bpm, with 151 as a ceiling. Expect around 6:30 to 7:00/km, and slow down or walk briefly on hills or in the heat if your heart rate climbs past it. The number to watch is your pace at about 148 bpm: it should get faster over the next 8 to 12 weeks.
4. Keep one or two hard sessions a week, and make them properly hard. Threshold and tempo work is where your race speed comes from. The lab specifically recommends raising your speed at threshold (162 bpm, now 5:27/km). Everything else should be clearly easy, so about 80% of your time stays below 152.
5. Use HRV and resting heart rate to steer the week. If your weekly HRV drops below about 42 ms or your resting heart rate is 3 or more bpm above normal, swap the hard session for an easy one.
6. Plan for heavy weeks on the house. The spring dip cost you a VO2max low and two months of rebuilding. On busy building weeks, two short easy runs hold most of your fitness. Count a hard day on site as a hard day, and skip the hard session after it.
7. A realistic target: with the volume back, a sub-50 10K and a 1:50 half are within reach. Garmin already predicts 50:43 and your threshold pace supports it.